Exchange Recap
CME Group: Interest Rates Recap - October 2019
SOFR futures: a $1.5 trillion market
Last month's volatility in the U.S. repo market showcased SOFR futures as a meaningful source of liquidity and an effective risk management tool for money market participants.
Following a spike in repo overnight lending rates on Sept. 16:
- Five-day ADV jumped to 108K contracts, including a record 153K contracts ($670B notional) on Sept. 17
- Open interest grew 51% during the month to 429K contracts ($1.55T notional)
- SOFR futures averaged a record 58K contracts ($200B notional) per day for the full month of September
- Global participation surpassed 215 firms since launch
- CME cleared a record $6.3B in SOFR swaps in September.
Money market spreading accelerates as basis volatility rises
In response to elevated basis volatility between money market rates in September, 47% of SOFR volume was executed as an inter-commodity spread (ICS) vs. Fed Funds or Eurodollars with over 27.6K in ICS ADV (79% Globex, 21% Blocks).
Announcing three SOFR webinars
- Oct. 10: SOFR growth drivers & hedging applications
- Nov. 1: SOFR price alignment & discounting
- Nov. 12: LIBOR fallbacks for Eurodollar futures & options
Fed Funds Futures in a Post-ZIRP World
As the FOMC returns to more active management of its key target rate, Fed Funds futures have experienced dramatic growth. But how well do Fed Fund futures predict Fed policy decisions?
Read our analysis exploring Fed Funds futures as a predictor of Fed policy.
All eyes on CME FedWatch
With true interest rate uncertainty for the first time in more than a decade, market participants have turned to the CME FedWatch tool in record numbers.
YTD, over 275K users have visited the CME FedWatch tool in search of insight into the market’s view on Fed policy, with total page traffic exceeding 1.2M views.
| CME FedWatch tool target rate probabilities (BPS) | ||||
| 100- 125 | 125- 150 | 150- 175 | 175- 200 | |
| 30/10/19 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 43.3% | 56.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/19 | 0.0% | 17.9% | 48.8% | 33.3% |
| 29/1/20 | 5.9% | 28.2% | 43.7% | 22.2% |
| 18/3/20 | 10.9% | 31.6% | 38.9% | 17.3% |
| 29/4/20 | 14.4% | 32.9% | 35.2% | 14.3% |
Probabilities as of Sep 30 at 10:00 am CT
Data as of September 30, 2019, unless otherwise specified
SOFR futures notional shown for illustrative purposes only, computed based on the value of an equivalent money market instrument with the same dollar-value-of-basis-point (DV01).
View the current version and an archive of the Rates Recap online at cmegroup.com/ratesrecap.
Helping the World Advance: CME Group comprises four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX.
Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves risk of loss. Futures are a leverage instrument, and because only a percentage of a contract's value is required to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money initially deposited for a futures product.
CME Group is the trademark of CME Group, Inc.
The Globe logo, Globex® and CME® are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inc.
CBOT® is the trademark of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago.
NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange, and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange. Inc.
COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc
© 2019 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved.
This information is reproduced by permission of CME Group Inc. and its affiliates under license. CME Group Inc. and its affiliates accept no liability or responsibility for the information contained herein, including but not limited to the currency, accuracy and/or completeness of this information, and delays, interruptions, errors or omissions. This information is an unofficial copy and may not reflect the official and accurate version. For the definitive and up-to-date version of any of this information, please see www.cmegroup.com.
Further information:
If you would like further information, please contact CME Group.